I had a brief conversation today with a close friend and colleague of mine in the online advertising industry. We arrived at some slightly crystallized views about the turbulent economic and political times.
First, Q1 of 2009 is destined to be downright bloody in the online ad economy, amidst a larger U.S. recession. Keep in mind we’re still riding the wave of a relatively strong 2007, as well as 2008 spending commitments that have been baked in for almost a year. We’re also buffered partly by election-season spending.
But the real economic indicators suggest we’re headed for a storm. We’re already seeing panic and consequent retrenchment and layoffs at a variety of companies, including start-ups (led by their VCs), traditional media companies and marketing-services firms. Consider plummeting auto sales, home sales and retailing — even soft indicators like the exploding number of cheap gym-membership deals. Oh yeah, then there’s the financial-sector calamity. It will be survival of the fittest, without a doubt.
Second, doom and gloom is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Businesses, governments and citizens can’t fail to confront reality, but they also must not let panic take over unnecessarily, like a cancer. This recession is an opportunity for the most talented, devoted leaders to execute well. Customers are hungrier than ever for authentic products and services that truly deliver. Customers’ tolerance and financial ability to enable the mediocre is fast waning. This is a time when the best will be rewarded with survival.
Third, there’ve been a lot of adjectives used to describe what’s happening in our economy. I’ve heard “correction,†“crisis,†“adjustment,†“suppression,†and “depression†among others. Regardless, we (as in, the citizens of the U.S.A.) have been on an unsustainable path of consumption. You know there’s a problem when Salvation Army locations begin throwing away clothes; I’ve seen that happen multiple times, and have had my personal donations frequently rejected as well. It has to be healthy for our society to return to more modest consumption levels. This economic downturn will prompt that – or, at least I hope it will.
Finally, a President Palin just wouldn’t be good for any of us. Even if you support McCain dislike Obama, American voters must acknowledge that McCain is old and not really in tip-top shape. Moreover, fully one-third of U.S. presidents also served as vice president! That what-if, by itself, is a distraction and risk none of us need right now.
We’re going through a time of cleansing and reconciliation, but I’m optimistic. I have two kids in diapers, so I have to be.
How about you?
I really don't understand it when people react very negatively to Palin's level of experience but make no similar objection to Obama's. They're pretty similar in duration and responsibility, but Palin has actually accomplished more in office.
Ahhh…I can always count on the contrary view from Rob! Point taken.
However, even Barak's campaign, alone, is 50x more accomplishment than
Palin's 1.5 years as Governor. I'm not saying I love or agree with him —
because I don't a lot of the time — but he's built he's led a movement and
a tight campaign.
The statement ,”Moreover, fully one-third of U.S. presidents also served as vice president!” is completely misleading and dishonest in the context provided. How many presidents died in office of natural causes? Four. McCain's mother is also 96 years old.
President Palin? Let's talk about the ACTUAL prospective top of the ticket. A potential Obama presidency is exceptionally scarier and an immediate possible reality. A man with 143 days of experience in the Senate, zero legislation at a state or national level that has brought about any significant CHANGE, and who has had consistently dubious associations including the hate-filled Wright, the sleazy Rezko, the terrorist Ayers, and the fraudulent ACORN, should be president? He is the person you feel is qualified, with a Senate position solely used as national platform to run for president, to help America through “cleansing and reconciliation”? Really? Really?
Yes, we should definitely “vote for change” — a tight marketing message — and elect Obama, who has accomplished nothing except building a personal fan base to be President of the United States. After all, he is “the one.”
Two kids in diapers? Hope you're not filthy rich by making more than $250k/yr. If so, with good for us President Obama, you'll need to spread your wealth around to the 30%+ of Americans who already don't pay taxes but deserve your money because the “middle class” needs welfar…”tax relief.”
That what-if of an Obama presidency, by itself, is a distraction and risk none of us need right now.
I'm very optimistic, at least today. I voted this morning and the energy at the polling place was palpable. I live in a very Democratic precinct and everyone who was voting was very happy and optimistic!
You brought up the elephant in the room, Max. Our consumption levels are obscene. I don't like the idea of a recession but I think tempering our consumption patterns would a slight sliver lining to this unfortunate mess.
If the Democrats can't win this election they may as well give up on politics and become a lawn tennis association, or something
I guess I'll be voting for Obama as he's like 3% better than McCain – so I'll be voting without much enthusiasm really.
The question for the Republicans now is not whether they lose, but whether they lose by a landslide…
It's interesting that the religious fundamentalists they courted in the 80s now have the party by the neck… will a spell in the wilderness mean more influence for this group n the RP or less? I wonder
If the Democrats can't win this election they may as well give up on politics and become a lawn tennis association, or something
I guess I'll be voting for Obama as he's like 3% better than McCain – so I'll be voting without much enthusiasm really.
The question for the Republicans now is not whether they lose, but whether they lose by a landslide…
It's interesting that the religious fundamentalists they courted in the 80s now have the party by the neck… will a spell in the wilderness mean more influence for this group n the RP or less? I wonder
Businesses, governments and citizens can’t fail to confront reality,
but they also must not let panic take over unnecessari
You and disqus is the same. You both are a good help to bloggers and readers like me. Keep up posting useful and helpful articles. God bless!